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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers rising together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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