🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."